MnetTV          Digital Library

Search Manufacturing.net
Today in Manufacturing.Net

Resources
Bookstore
Career Center
Events Calendar
Links
White Papers
Digital Library

Time to Market

News
Featured Articles
Financial News
Global Manufacturing
Government News
Mergers & Acquisitions
News Archive
People in the News

Free White Papers

Market Sectors
Aerospace
Automotive/Transportation
Chemical/Petroleum
Food/Beverage
Medical
Metals
Pharmaceuticals/Biotech
Plastics/Rubber
Other Manufacturing

Amazon

Industry Focus
Design & Development
Electrical & Electronics
Energy
Environmental
Facilities & Operations
Labor Relations
Manufacturing Technology
Materials
Quality
Safety
Supply Chain

Career Center
CareerBuilder.com


About Us
Editorial Contacts
Advertise with Us

Our Partner Sites
Chem.Info
ECN
Food Manufacturing
IMPO (Industrial Maintenance & Plant Operation)
Medical Design Technology
Pharmaceutical Processing
Product Design & Development
R & D Magazine
Wireless Design & Development
Wireless Week





Advertise with Mnet



Slow Pickup Sales Mean Changes For Ford, GM
By Tom Krisher, AP Auto Writer
Manufacturing.Net - June 30, 2008

Printer Friendly     E-mail to a Colleague


DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) -- Every morning, just after getting coffee, Mark Fields fires up his laptop to pore over a computer model showing real-time U.S. auto sales figures.

On this morning in the middle of May, the man who heads Ford Motor Co.'s Americas operations has seen enough.

The line on a chart showing subcompact car sales for the first two weeks of the month goes almost straight up. The one for pickup trucks, Ford's biggest profit center, runs almost straight down.

High gasoline prices and the economic downturn are changing the market far faster than anyone anticipated. Without action, Ford would be making too many trucks and not enough cars, a recipe for a balance sheet peppered with parentheses.

"This is going on 10 weeks where we're seeing this not get any better," Fields recalled in a recent interview. "So we'd better act, and we'd better act now."

Eleven miles away at General Motors Corp., they were reaching the same conclusions. Consumers were delaying big-ticket purchases. Those who bought weren't going for GM or Ford trucks and sport utility vehicles, instead snapping up just about anything that gets more than 30 miles per gallon.

At both companies, executives were alarmed. Eventually they made almost desperate decisions that will cost thousands of jobs, change the vehicles people drive and determine whether their businesses survive.

"We need to get in front of it," Mike DiGiovanni, GM's executive director of global market and industry analysis, recalls saying. "If you wait too long on it, the pain would get a lot worse."

While both companies say they took quick action, critics wonder why they didn't make more fuel-efficient vehicles sooner. After all, there were many signs that gas prices would do nothing but rise.

"Obviously they were making just too much money off their SUVs and pickups," said Roland Hwang, vehicle policy director for the Natural Resources Defense Council. "They couldn't really fully conceive of a world where they would have to rapidly extricate themselves from those markets and those profits."

At GM and Ford, the pain came quickly. Ford was first, announcing on May 22 that it would dramatically cut truck and SUV production and slash its salaried work force. Factory closures are possible when the company announces specifics next month. A week later, Ford announced accelerated plans for a super-compact car to be built in Mexico and sold in the U.S.

Ford also abandoned its long-stated goal of turning a profit in 2009 and now says it will be difficult to break even next year.

GM followed with larger, more specific cuts, announcing at its annual shareholders meeting June 3 that it would close four truck and SUV factories, cutting more than 8,000 jobs. The company, which is clinging to its title as world's biggest automaker, also announced it would build a new small car in the U.S., powered by a 1.4-liter four-cylinder engine capable of getting up to 45 miles per gallon of gas.

But neither company's new compacts will reach showrooms for two years, and when they do, their profit margins will be far smaller than those from trucks and SUVs. Both automakers know they'll have to make it in the meantime with models already on the market or ones that are planned for the next year.

Industry analysts now are starting to question whether both companies, as well as Chrysler LLC, will have to borrow billions more to cover losses until sales recover.

As late as February, things were going pretty much according to both companies' plans. Sales weren't great, but their main barometer of the market, full-size pickup trucks, was holding up at 13 percent of U.S. sales, according to Ward's AutoInfoBank. Each automaker had rolled out new cars in expectation of a gradual shift from trucks to cars, and the cars were selling well.

But Digiovanni said oil prices in February began to rise, still not to an alarming level because they were consistent with previous seasonal spikes. Gasoline was still at a nationwide average of $3.03 per gallon.

In March, though, pickups' share of the market dove to just 11.6 percent and gas rose to $3.24.

"That's when I said 'Red Alert,'" Digiovanni remembered. "We're worried."

The share dropped to 10.8 percent in April, and when Ford's computer model predicted only a 9 percent slice of the market for trucks in the first half of May, CEO Alan Mulally decided to turn the giant ship faster than it had ever turned.

Ford would cut truck production and move as fast as it could to retool factories that make cars and crossovers. It would speed up plans to move small cars and trucks to the U.S. from other areas of the world and slash the normal three- or four-year time frame from design to build.

By May, gas prices had soared to $3.77, and both companies also were experiencing huge price increases in steel and other commodities.

When a market segment such as pickups moves up or down even one-half percent in a year, automakers consider it significant. Four points in 2½ months "puts it into perspective," Fields said.

"We are reacting quickly," he said. "We are reacting more quickly than we ever had in the past."

Even critics say it would have been nearly impossible for the automakers to predict the 74-cent-per-gallon spike in regular gas prices between February and May.

Although Ford's computer model, developed by a physicist and programmer in its research center, can pinpoint real-time retail sales numbers for the whole U.S. market, no company has a model to predict the future with any degree of certainty.

Still, George Pipas, Ford's top sales analyst, said the company saw change coming several years ago and was moving to tilt its model lineup smaller.

"The direction we were headed was based on the point of view that small cars were going to increase their share of the market and trucks and SUVs were going to be less," Pipas said. "It was the speed with which we got there. So we've got to fast-forward the elements of our plan."

Whether Ford, GM and Chrysler LLC can go forward fast enough remains to be seen. But even Hwang of the Natural Resources Defense Council says he thinks the companies will have a brighter future because they are more focused on fuel economy.

"There's no reason why Detroit can't emerge leaner, stronger, more fuel efficient and more sustainable from a business and environmental perspective," he said. "Fuel efficiency is not just because you want to help save the world. It's because you need to save your company."


Printer Friendly     E-mail to a Colleague



Talkback!
Manufacturing.net is pleased to provide you an opportunity to share your opinions on any of the news stories or articles on our site. We reserve the right to edit/remove comments.
Viewing 11 User Comments
Add a Comment
Not the oil prices  6/30/2008 12:18:00 PM
I strongly believe that it is not the rise of fuel prices, american consumers do not trust the products of the big three.
It is mostly oil prices  6/30/2008 4:48:00 PM
Ask Toyota and Nissan how well their full-size trucks and SUVs are selling...
NRDC???  6/30/2008 4:55:00 PM
Who would think that some spokesperson for the Natural Resources Defense Council would be represented as an unbiased expert in the field of American automobile industry viability. What a joke!!!
Bring in product designs from Europe  6/30/2008 5:01:00 PM
Both GM & Ford have high quality small cars in Europe that they can build here, but have not done so because big cars had big margins. Its not that they dont know how to build small cars, because they do it in the rest of the world.
Food for thought  6/30/2008 5:41:00 PM
How come, with all the marketing tools and ressources that they have, nobody made any "what ifs" scenario - Even our small size company (125 people all together) have made what ifs scenario (rise of the Cdn currency for example)and saw this coming ???? Simply amazing that the presidents collect their pay check ... unless they are so tied up in managing cash flow ... Daniel
26 Years of Procrastination finally catches up  6/30/2008 6:23:00 PM
It's amazing that back in 1982 my Dad added a vacuum driven water injected system to the carberator conected to my 350 small block Chevy and he was able to get 18/25 miles per gallon back then, and 26 years later the big 3 auto companies are scrambling.
THE BIG 3 HAS LOUSY MANAGEMENT  6/30/2008 7:34:00 PM
They do not face reality the dollar has been sliding as well as truck sales while oil has been going up for at least a year. "We’re changing fast now - is cover-up for we are a year late"! And our R&D sucks. The war for oil killed the dollar and ticked off Bush so he is fighting back with his Saudi buddies!
It is both oil and lack of quality  6/30/2008 7:50:00 PM
American vehicles are good... sometimes. High oil prices, inconsistent quality, and lack of planning for the future are causing the American companies to suffer. Toyota and Honda have earned a reputation for quality, and have anticipated the market. Ford and GM have not. Fuel prices have only been a catalyst of a much longer term problem... poor management (including that of the unions) and quality. We've been highly conscious of gas for at least two years now. Why is it a surprise now? Quality and planning are everything.
Are they serious?  7/1/2008 7:45:00 AM
Close plants, cut 8000+ jobs, on top of what has already taken place. Build cars in Mexico to sell in the U.S.(?) What loyalty. I am laughing all the way to TOYOTA.
Gas mileage  7/1/2008 12:45:00 PM
I read your column about the auto makers having to scramble to design new cars that get great mileage and I shake my head. I had the fortune to pick up a 1997 Geo Metro last spring and the car has paid for itself a few times over. The car has 200,000 miles on it, it has been very well cared for and every day I drive it 50 miles in my commute. The person I purchased it from put flames on the side of the vehicle and while people tend to laugh and like teasing me about it, when I tell them I recently got 47 mpg on a tank of gas they ask me where they can find one. When these cars were new they were known to get over 50 mpg. If GM made this car today they wouldn’t be able to keep it on the show room floor. People would say “Why buy a hybrid car when you get this sort of milage?” GM should strongly look into bringing the car back. Heck, they could even do an advertisement showing one being filled up next to a huge SUV with the question of “Are you fed up with high gas costs yet?”
Gas Mileage  7/2/2008 9:09:00 AM
In 1988 I bought a new Camry, it gave me 45mpg (Imperial)consistantly. Twenty years later the car companies are talking about 30mpg?? There is no reason that today's pickup trucks cannot be powered by 2 litre diesel turbo engines and still give good mileage.


Add a Comment...

E-Mail:
The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.

Subject:
Comment:

 

     










THIS WEEK'S MOST
READ NEWS ITEMS

Medical

Applied Biosystems To Vote On Buyout

Baxter Healthcare Licenses Surgical Antibiotic

Abbott Cutting 1,000 Jobs From Diagnostic Unit


Food/Beverage

ConAgra Now Uses Recycled Plastic In Trays

Russian Ban More Bad News For U.S. Poultry

Freezer Sales Jump As Food Prices Soar

Automotive/Transportation

AM General Cutting 80 Jobs At Hummer Plant

GM Recalls 944,000 Vehicles

Freightliner To Lay Off 225 More At S.C. Plant
News Video